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                                                                                                                                                                          银河娱乐场电子游戏网址:CPI涨幅连续四月处于“2”时代 下半年上涨空间有限

                                                                                                                                                                          CPI同比涨幅连续四个月处于“2时代”。根据昨日国家统计局公布的数据,6月份CPI同比上涨2.7%,与5月持平,处于相对较高水平。CPI环比下降0.1%,近3个月首次负增长。

                                                                                                                                                                          “食品价格同比涨幅扩大是拉动CPI的主要原因,其中鲜果价格和猪肉价格涨幅较大。”交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智昨日分析认为,6月份CPI翘尾因素为1.6,比5月上升0.1个百分点。

                                                                                                                                                                          数据显示,6月份食品价格同比上涨8.3%,涨幅比5月扩大0.6个百分点,为2012年以来的高点。其中鲜果价格和猪肉价格涨幅分别为42.7%、21.1%,比5月显著扩大16个百分点、2.9个百分点。鲜菜价格同比4.2%,比5月下降9.1个百分点,涨幅已经显著收窄。此外,非食品价格同比上涨1.4%,涨幅比5月下降0.2个百分点,为2016年7月以来的低点。而核心CPI为1.6%,涨幅与5月持平。

                                                                                                                                                                          “生猪及能繁母猪存栏量仍在下降,将导致未来生猪供应量减少。受猪肉价格上涨周期叠加生猪疫情的影响,下半年重点关注猪肉价格走势可能阶段性拉升CPI。”刘学智进一步分析认为,6月之后CPI翘尾逐渐减弱,对物价的抬升作用减弱。因此,除了猪肉价格以外,其他拉升CPI的因素都较弱。下半年CPI上涨空间有限,全年CPI同比涨幅可能低于2.5%,不存在明显的通胀压力。

                                                                                                                                                                          同日公布的6月PPI环比-0.3%,为近4个月首次环比负增长,6月PPI同比涨幅降到0,为2016年9月以来的最低点。PPIRM(工业生产者购进价格)同比-0.1%,比5月下降0.3个百分点。

                                                                                                                                                                          刘学智表示,工业产品价格指数持续下降,其中生产资料价格负增长,反应出当前生产需求走弱。生活资料价格涨幅相对大一些。下半年PPI翘尾因素显著走弱,将对PPI有明显的下拉作用。内外需求偏弱,需求拉动PPI上升的可能性不大。未来PPI可能出现阶段性负增长。

                                                                                                                                                                          西南证券首席宏观分析师杨业伟则表示,年内通胀压力无虞,三季度基数因素将推动通胀下行。“通胀保持平稳态势,对货币政策不形成约束。而工业品价格下跌将带动企业盈利水平走弱,三季度工业企业盈利将进一步恶化,四季度随着PPI跌幅收窄,同比增速才有望获得改善。”